July 27, 2026: There are clear signs that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Of the two million casualties suffered by both sides so far, 70 percent of them were Russian. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has changed over the last three years from 2-1 to the current 8-1. The Ukrainians have long made the most of being on the defensive. Ukraine has developed specific tactics for this, and Ukrainian soldiers are trained to be very effective at causing lots of Russian casualties. Until this year, the Russians were able to mobilize enough new troops to replace losses. That is no longer the case, and in the last few months Russia has only been able to replace about 90 percent of losses. This is getting worse.

The deteriorating Russian situation also shows up in advance rates, which were 50, 70, and 90 meters per day during three recent battles. These are some of the slowest rates of advance in any conflict since the start of World War II.

The primary source of Russian losses has been Ukrainian drones. These drones come in an increasing number of types, and new models appear rapidly. Russia has been unable to compete. To make matters worse, Ukraine has developed an effective drone interceptor, further diluting Russian offensive efforts. Over the last year, Ukrainian long-range drones have intensified their attacks on military and economic targets in western Russia, including major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. These attacks are bringing the war home to Russian civilians who have been told for years that Russian forces were winning.